03.27.06
Browne on McDowell
This is much better and while a good read, it is also much more salient. I particularly like this…
“McDowell has never been elected in two successive general elections. He won in 1987, lost in 1989, won in 1992, lost in 1997, won in 2002. A crucial element in how he won or lost has been how Fine Gael has fared. When Fine Gael did well, he fared badly; when Fine Gael did badly, he did well.
His vote in Dublin South East is a Fine Gael vote – or at least a large part of it is. But his recent antics may have alienated a sizeable and crucial section of this vote, for it was a Fine Gael pin-up boy whom he attacked and belittled.
It was that same Fine Gael pin-up boy who emerged gloriously from that contest, not just by winning hands down on Monday’s Six-One News on RTE1 in the debate to which he was challenged by McDowell.
More tellingly, it was Bruton’s calm and coherent demeanour which defeated McDowell’s frenzy, and later Bruton’s graciousness in accepting McDowell’s self-regarding apology. It is quite a skill to turn an apology into a swagger, by claiming he was ‘man enough’ to acknowledge he was wrong.
Actually it was merely half an apology, for McDowell failed to withdraw the brazen conceit and belittlement in the remark: “Deputy Bruton is knee-high to me in terms of anything that he’s ever managed to do for this country” etc.
simon said,
March 27, 2006 at 10:32 pm
Well I don’t know Michael Lowry’s vote in Tipp is a Fine Gael vote but even though all the shaninigans he is still toping the poll. I would say McDowell is pretty safe. Party politics is not that strong personnality does win. Also wasn’t something in Phoenix that McDowell was topping the opinion poll in his constituiencies.
Niall said,
March 27, 2006 at 10:42 pm
I seem to remember a time when I thought McDowell was a breath of fresh air. How long ago that seems!
Hmmm, wasn’t that about the same time as the Tamogotchi craze?
fatmammycat said,
March 28, 2006 at 10:06 am
He is a conundrum, on the one hand I admire his stance against the IRA and his willingness to put his neck on the line, on the other hand is an insufferable wind bag.
Sarah said,
March 28, 2006 at 11:09 am
I know people in Dubin S-E who fell for that “one party government – no thanks” shite. They were FG but knew they didn’t have a chance of getting in (cos of the daily publication of opinion polls which always underestimate FG’s votes and the become self-fulfilling). So they actually did vote PD to “keep an eye” on FF. You just want to kick them.
ang said,
March 28, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Jaysis, duck, anyone in Dub SE who voted McDowell… So you reckon they should have voted FG which would have been a real waste of a vote.. at least by voting McD they got a TD in government which is the object surely! All goes to show that the differences between the parties is so little that even the dyed in the wool FGers feel at liberty to vote for McD. I know FFers in that constituency who voted for him for god’s sake…. All very weird!!!
Sarah said,
March 28, 2006 at 1:14 pm
well not weird but just interesting how damaging opinion polls are to FG..It is accepted by all analysts that opinion polls DO underestimate FG’s votes. When people saw that they had little chance of getting into government they then adjusted their votes accordingly. McD’s campaign was that since FF were going to be in government they should vote PD so that they wouldn’t have an overall majority. It worked!
And remember, this doesn’t mean that EVERYONE who voted PD voted on these lines. FG had an appalling election last time but most seats were lost by a couple of hundred votes. That’s all it takes to swing to have a great or disastrous election.
Analysts also accept that even tho the PDs was set up by ex-FnFers (Harney and O’Malley) a lot of their members ended up coming from FG. Browne’s analysis is actually correct. McD might lose just enough of his FG voters to lose his seat next time round…
Ang..you are such a sucker for McD! I know it is always the case that people are much nicer in private than they are in public, and I am sure McD is nice to children and animals. But he obviously clearly believes, regardless of his apology, that Baby Brutal IS knee high to him. I believe he really has damaged himself this time. He may come to regret it….Still if he chatted up Moriarty at a cocktail party and encouraged him to not to bankrupt me , that would be very nice. I could guarantee him several votes if he did that
ang said,
March 28, 2006 at 4:43 pm
Just shows a few hundred votes anyway can change things drastically. At least it’s not dull…. I’d throw myself in front of an electronic voting box rather than have the results 10 minutes after voting. Hurrah for Martin Cullen’s ineptitude! Yep think yr right bout McD… He may well have screwed himself this time.. No sympathy out there for him these days. I doubt if he is nice to children and animals (we perhaps his own).They’ve no votes!!!
Daniel K. said,
March 28, 2006 at 4:47 pm
That poll was a FF one with 4! FF candidates included in the mix! It’s a joke of a poll and even FFers don’t believe it tells them anything more that the relative strength of the FF chancers…sorry…prospective candidates.
simon said,
March 29, 2006 at 1:21 am
I doubt if he is nice to children
http://communications.nuim.ie/graphics/kidsatcreche.jpg